ExxonMobil’s scientists accurately predicted human-caused global warming of 0.20°C per decade since 1977

In a Science journal article earlier this year, G. Supran et al. (2023) assessed the accuracy of ExxonMobil’s internal climate models that was done between 1977 and 2003. The oil company’s scientists have projected a global warming of 0.20°C per decade with a ± 0.04°C uncertainty, consistent with those predicted by independent models. ExxonMobil have also known that global warming is caused by human-emissions and have even estimated how much CO2 can it emit before the climate change crisis experienced today will occur.

The study, along with reports by numerous investigative journalists in 2015, confirms that not only ExxonMobil knew about human-caused global warming, but the company’s knowledge also was as accurate as those done by independent and government scientists in that time. This adds to the mounting evidence on allegations that the company’s campaign on climate change denialism is an act of fraud.

The myth that the company did not know about the science behind anthropogenic climate change is now less convincing. ExxonMobil is still claiming that “Exxon knew” is wrong and has pointed to a ruling in a 2019 New York Supreme Court that the company had acted in good faith on lobbying against climate regulations. Among other denialisms, the company have over-emphasised the uncertainties in the climate models to justify dismissing climate change over the cost of regulating the fossil-fuel industry. The 2015 Exxon leaked documents exposed that this is a public affairs strategy to reject the findings of the company’s own scientists and deny climate change science. The 2023 study have further quantified that 63-83% of ExxonMobil’s human-caused global warming projections were accurate.

Despite the 2019 ruling, Exxon and other fossil-fuel giants are still under litigation around the world over fraud charges. Additionally, The Harvard Environmental Law Review have argued that the oil and gas companies should be charged with homicide (Arkush & Braman, 2023). This paper argues that if there is culpability of deaths and lethal risk due to negligence according to US homicide laws, then fossil-fuel companies such as Exxon should be culpable with homicide in addition to fraud on covering up the dangers brought by human-caused climate change.

References:

1. G. Supran, S. Rahmstorf, N. Oreskes. Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections. Science 379, eabk0063 (2023). DOI: 10.1126/science.abk0063

2. D. Arkush & D. Braman. Climate Homicide: Prosecuting Big Oil For Climate Deaths. Harvard Environmental Law Review (draft 2023). https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4335779

3. N. Banerjee, L. Song, D. Hasemyer. Exxon’s Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels’ Role in Global Warming Decades Ago. Inside Climate News (2015). https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16092015/exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming/ 

4. S. Jerving, K. Jennings, M. M. Hirsch and S. Rust. What Exxon knew about the Earth's melting Arctic. Los Angeles Times (2015). https://perma.cc/NA86-5PWH 

5. R. Frost. Exxon accurately predicted climate change in the 70s: Which other fossil fuel giants knew the risks? Euronews.green (2023). https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/01/13/exxon-accurately-predicted-climate-change-in-the-70s-which-other-fossil-fuel-giants-knew-t 

6. A. Symons. Fossil fuel firms should be charged with homicide for climate change deaths, legal experts argue. Euronews.green (2023). https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/03/24/fossil-fuel-firms-should-be-charged-with-homicide-for-climate-change-deaths-legal-experts-